Saturday, 23 September 2006
 

OBL Croaks...Again
Contributed by John Werntz

Here we go again.  The French Minister of Defense is urgently investigating a leak from the DGSE [France's service of foreign intelligence] to a daily in the East, L'Est Républicain.  The newspaper reproduces what purports to be a secret memo that was forwarded to the *highest authorities* of the nation.

For what it may be worth [as news, and as a literary effort] the sequel presents a translation of the essentials.

Note: The original is couched in the conditional, meaning "We don't know but it's a hot rumor."

Osama Bin Laden May Be Dead

"According to a usually reliable source, the Saudi services are convinced that Osama Bin Laden is dead. Details collected by the Saudis indicate that the leader of Al-Qaeda, while he was in Pakistan on the 23rd of August 2006, may have suffered a severe attack of typhoid that brought on  a partial paralysis of his lower limbs. Hiding from pursuers in a remote location, he was unable to receive medical attention. On the 4th of September 2006, the Saudi services of security learned the first details of his death.  Before announcing the news officially, they await obtaining further details, notably the exact location of his grave.

"The DGSE deemed the data collected on his death sufficiently reliable to merit notifying the highest authorities of France [Tr. note: President Chirac, the PM, and the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense]. A preliminary memo was prepared and circulated on the 19th of September. It was entitled 'The Saudi services seek to confirm the death of Osama Bin Laden.'"

Not much to say here, but a few random remarks may be in order.  Note first the gap of two weeks between the 4th, when DGSE got the news from some Saudi, and the 19th when they decided to alert their bosses.  This surely indicates that the decision to inform the authorities was based on serious study.  Why did the French get the story before the Americans? At the risk of annoying our spooks, it is well known that the French have vastly more and better human assets on the ground everywhere in the Middle East, even among our *special friends* in Saudi Arabia.

Long-term significance? In the famous Arab street, surely none. It would take a concerted PR campaign to promote Al-Zawahiri or anyone else to fill Osama's sandals.  Lacking that, the street won't like the news, and will simply ignore it.  Here at home, ho-hum.  After announcing with great fanfare that he would send troops into Pakistan to bring Osama to "justice," the president can hardly turn on a dime, admit that he has been kept out of the loop, and welcome the news of his adversary's passing. The CIA is bound to pooh-pooh it, on the familiar grounds that the story is NIH--Not Invented Here. Likewise, the media. The mantra "I question the timing." will spring up everywhere like desert flowers after a shower. Even if the putative grave were discovered, only the government of Pakistan would have the power to disinter and identify the corpse.  Forget about it.  President Musharraf's life would not be worth a stiver if he were to permit the desecration of the tomb of a latter-day Prophet.

Maybe Jay Leno can get a joke out of it.  That's All Folks!  Even so, the gravity of the French response to the leak has to count for something. On the other hand, the circumstantial details of Osama's illness seem somewhat dubious. Partial paralysis of the legs is not a commonly occurring symptom of typhoid fever.  Some medical dictionaries do list "prostration," which could include any sort of extreme weakness, so  perhaps "paralysis" simply means he was too weak to stand or walk.  It's a coin-flip.

Contributed by John Werntz on September 23, 2006 at 12:29 PM in Current Affairs, France, Islamism Delenda Est, John "72nd TCS" Werntz | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Tuesday, 19 September 2006
 

Do the French *get it* [Cont'd]
Contributed by John Werntz

Webmaster's note 2006.09.19.19:12: John encountered some sort of technical difficulty which forced him to do a continuation post containing things that he wanted at the end of his previous post. He then emailed me and asked me to try to move the contents of this, the continuation post, to the end of the original post. I've complied with his request.

Contributed by John Werntz on September 19, 2006 at 06:15 PM in Current Affairs, France, John "72nd TCS" Werntz, Unclear on the concept | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Do the French *get it* or are they going to Get It?
Contributed by John Werntz

This writer regrets that an accidental technical glitch [a familiar euphemism for "I'm a klutz"] has delayed the posting of this item by a couple of days.  However, the real issue as stated in the title is timeless.

We are all familiar with the fact that Al-Qaeda's number 2 man AymanAl-Zawahiri [or number 1, depending on how much one is impressed by the CIA's proclamation--based on videotapes--that "Osama lives!"] Al-Zawa in any event released an hour-long video celebrating the "victory" of 9/11/2001 and rehashing the usual litany of Islamic grievances against the West.  Most media reports here concentrated on his renewed threats of direct action. For example, we had this from CNN--

Al-Zawahiri says any attack on Westerners and Jews anywhere can be considered
fair, because "the reality of international politics is the humiliation and
repression of the Muslim at the hands of the idol-kings who dominate this world."             

Most European media reported similarly, but France was a bit different from the others.  The reason for "l'exception Française" was that Al-Zawa made a bit of news in singling out France for particular attention.  The sequel deals with this aspect of his rant, and the French reaction to it.

First, a liittle background, for the sake of the majority of readers who have neither lived nor worked in France.  Libération, the newspaper cited, is a center-left publication, the successor of a broadsheet that appeared clandestinely during the German occupation of the early 1940's.  It featured such soon-to-become-famous writers as Albert Camus and J-P Sartre.  With its political slant and its record of continuous publication since the darkest days, the paper enjoys considerable prestige, rivalling that of the semi-official *newspaper of record* Le Monde. The interviewee, Mme. Anne Giudicelli, is equally well-regarded.  After a 9-year stint with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as an expert on anti-terrorism, she became an investigative journalist and prolific free-lance writer.  Eventually she founded her own consulting enterprise, named "Terrorisc," which advises firms in Europe regarding economics and politics in the Middle East.

On September 14, a reporter named Alexandra Bogaert interviewed Mme. Giuidicelli for Libération regarding the Al-Zawahiri video. Brief citations follow, with headings in bold type. Al-Zawa actually makes news in the first excerpt, where he mentions the GSPC.  The acronym, in typical French word order, stands for Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, a major terrorist thorn in the side of the Algerian govenment. Salafist is loosely equivalent to Wahabi, the particularly narrow and intolerant version of Islam prevalent in Saudi Arabia. Preaching stands for proselytizing, primarily by  violent means, i.e., by Combat.

What can you tell us about it?

It's a professional document, from start to finish, presented as an interview of Al-Zawahiri that pretends to be relatively *objective*.  The interviewer, who obviously belongs to Al-Qaeda, takes the role of devil's advocate.  He asks questions along the lines of "People say that Al-Qaeda kills civilians. How do you answer?"  This permits Al-Zawahiri to deflect the criticisms.

This video is important because it was realized on the fifth anniversary of 9-11. Al-Zawahiri then brings us up to date: what works, what doesn't work, what remains to be done.  It is in this connection that he announces the integration--the Arabic also means fusion--of the GSPC into Al-Qaeda.

Note: It seems I've run out of space.  TypePad won't accept any further input.  I'll try posting this and finishing up in a second--shorter, one hopes--post.  Here goes...

Webmaster's note: John apparently encountered some sort of TypePad, Windows or ISP glitch we wouldn't be able to reproduce even if we wanted to. I've moved the contents of his continuation post to the end of this post.

Here we go again, with a new heading:

Why this coming together?

Up to now, the GSPC was begging to become part of Al-Qaeda.  But last year, Al-Zawahiri had indicated his reluctance.  Now, the GSPC has strong branches in Western Europe...In joining it organically to its structure, Al-Qaeda shows its intention to expand in Europe. The GSPC is handed to Al-Qaeda as a turnkey operation: fully formed, with capabilities and also contacts ready to fit in.  More, Al-Zawahiri's declaration sends a message to adherents of Al-Qaeda: you can get in touch with the GSPC, they're our home-boys.

And why has France been mentioned:

Al-Qaeda's pointing the finger at France as an enemy is not new. All those who support in one or another way American policy or the international policy of the UN are thought to be enemies.  But this is the first time that France enjoys such special treatment, in being singled out above all in the name of Bin Laden. I believe the GSPC asked Al-Zawahiri to pick on France. Historically, France and the Algerian regime that we are accused of supporting are the two enemies of  the GSPC.  However, since the change of management at the head of the GSPC on the 11th September of 2003, the movement has chosen struggle on an international scale.

So, what is this expert's bottom line?  She says she doesn't think France is in the bullseye, or even the 9-ring.  True, terrorist menaces against France have ratcheted up a click, but the principal enemies remain the United States, Israel and Great Britain.  Most of the readers' comments following her article in Libération Online mimic the pose of the ostrich.

After all this, which seems to peter out in denial, I hope this writer will be forgiven a slight digression into personal impressions.  The comment thread, by and large, reads as if it could have been translated from the Daily Kos.  Nothing surprising in that.  The most striking feature was the bouquet of spelling howlers, and lamentable errors in grammar, syntax, and lexicon.  It is truly sad to see the French system of secondary education, once second to none, go the way of the American public school.

Contributed by John Werntz on September 19, 2006 at 05:14 PM in Current Affairs, France, John "72nd TCS" Werntz, Unclear on the concept | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Monday, 04 September 2006
 

Two Posts on Lebanon from Debka
Contributed by George Mellinger

First the proviso. Debkafiles is a well known but controversial site, It is wide rumored to have ties to Israeli Intelligence, the Mossad, though nobody knows for certain. As in the old Zen paradigm, "He who speaks does not know, he who knows does not speak."  Debka has been accused of spreading disinformation and propaganda on occasion. or perhaps that is only how you explain error by a source which usually seems to have prime inside information. Debka is very worth auditing, though you should always do so with skepticism. Of course, you really should do that with everything you find on the web, even the authoritative insights of Rurik. Except of course for the ranting at DU and the Daily Kotz, which you know to be always nonsense.

Today there are two items from Debka, which offer cause for concern. the first discusses the naval build-up off the coast of Lebanon.

The extraordinary buildup of European naval and military strength in and around Lebanon’s shores is way out of proportion for the task the European contingents of expanded UNIFIL have undertaken: to create a buffer between Israel and Hizballah.

Close investigation by DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources discloses that “Lebanese security” and peacemaking is not the object of the exercise. It is linked to the general anticipation of a military clash between the United States and Israel, on one side, and Iran and possibly Syria on the other, some time from now until November. Continue reading here.

In this case, I cannot help but wonder if the description of the size of the fleet is either exaggerated or distorted by short memories. But it does suggest that something may be a-building. Even more notable is the unusual mix of national fleets. (Note - where they refer to the warships as including "...5 Italian, 2-3 Green, 3-5 German..." I presume that is a typo for Greek, since I have never heard of the Environmentalist Navy.)

The second article, Some Lebanon War Riddles Solved and Their Relevance to Moves on Syria in Jerusalem Explained is even more alarming and considers Israel's sudden desire to negotiate with Syria's Bashir Asshat, and raises questions of why the Israeli military conducted such a limited war in Lebanon. Certain Israeli leaders (sic) are singled out, and accusations are also leveled at some American Administration figures. if even some of the accusations are true, it is troubling. but remember, this article may be intended for its political impact, both in Israel and America.

A tip of the helmet to TACAN.

-Rurik

Contributed by George Mellinger on September 4, 2006 at 07:41 PM in France, George Mellinger, Germany, Hezbollah, Iran, Islamism Delenda Est, Israel, Lebanon, US Marine Corps, US Navy | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Monday, 21 August 2006
 

Disproportionate Response II
Contributed by Bill Faith

[...]

From the Boston Herald: With doublespeaking France, honor gets lost in translation.

In recent weeks, France stepped forward to act as a broker of peace in Lebanon. “Act” is the key verb in that last sentence, as it now would seem that the only other verifiable part of the sentence is “in recent weeks.”

To correctly parse that sentence, one must understand that when France suggested it wanted to broker peace in Lebanon, it did not necessarily mean “broker” or “peace” or “Lebanon” in the way we might understand those words. The same is true when France further suggested it wanted to “lead” a “strong” “multinational” “force” there.

Contributed by Bill Faith on August 21, 2006 at 01:02 AM in Bill Faith, DisUnited Nations, France, Islamism Delenda Est, Lebanon, UNuseful | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Saturday, 19 August 2006
 

French To Alter Uniforms For Lebanon Deployment
Contributed by Bill Faith

Given genuine concerns over the UN mandate and the fear that French forces might come under fire in their peace keeping role in Lebanon, French military authorities have opted to use an alternate uniform for the 200 or so engineers they will be deploying in Lebanon.

The new uniform is said to be more clearly identifiable as a UN force due to its incorporation of the traditional UN blue and white.

[Read on. Swallow your coffee first.]

Contributed by Bill Faith on August 19, 2006 at 08:05 PM in Bill Faith, France, Hezbollah, Islamism Delenda Est, Israel, Lebanon | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack

Friday, 18 August 2006
 

... and it damned sure ain't over yet -- Continued
Contributed by Bill Faith

Continued from ... and it damned sure ain't over yet -- Continued

The French Surrender ... Again

After insisting on a cease-fire in Lebanon and demanding international action to separate the combatants, the French have performed one of their traditional about-faces and refused to substantially contribute to the effort. Efforts to create a strong international force to support the Lebanese Army centered on commitments by the French of up to 5,000 troops. Now the Chirac government says they could scrape up maybe 200, if they're not too busy on their August vacations:

France on Thursday rebuffed pleas by U.N. officials to make a major contribution to a peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, setting back efforts to deploy an international military force to help police a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, according to U.N. and French officials.

[...]

If nothing else showed the uselessness of the United Nations, this latest folly should convince everyone of it. The UN fancies itself as the modern mechanism of peace. However, in its sixty years of being, the only accomplishment it has achieved has been the prolongation of every conflict it enters. The UN provides no solutions; they fix all disputes in amber and hope that the boredom kills them. That strategy has proven singularly unsuccessful, and nothing demonstrates that better than the UNIFIL force that the UN wants to bolster. Most people did not know that the UN had a peacekeeping force on the Israel-Lebanon border for almost thirty years -- and the reason why is because they have proven themselves nonentities in the effort to stop war.

[Read the whole thing here.]

***

The Real Ugly American: France: a nation of cowards

***

Charles Krauthammer: Deja vu all over again

Contributed by Bill Faith on August 18, 2006 at 12:06 PM in Bill Faith, France, Hezbollah, Iran, Islamism Delenda Est, Israel, Lebanon | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Wednesday, 09 August 2006
 

"Twin Shocks: Iran Behind Hezbollah Kidnappers;
France Dicks Us Over At UN"
Contributed by Bill Faith

Ace of Spades:

Iran? Training terrorists? Why, it's almost as if they're part of -- how does one put this? -- some kind of axis of iniquity or something.

Iniquity? Too Biblical. Something simple. Wrongness, baditude. Something like that.

A captured Hezbollah terrorist who took part in the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers that sparked the war in Lebanon has confessed he received military training in Iran, according to a recording of his interrogation.

Under questioning by Israeli authorities, Hussein Ali Suleiman, 22, revealed he was sent to Iran twice for weapons and explosives instruction, most recently at the end of 2003.

[...]

[Read the whole thing.]

***

The g-ddamned French surrender again
Allahpundit

[...]

Three days ago: France agrees with the U.S. on a resolution that would call for a “full cessation of hostilities” to be followed by the deployment in southern Lebanon of an international peacekeeping force. To be followed in turn by an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.

72 hours of Arab seething and whining later: France demands an immediate Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon to be followed by the deployment in the south of 15,000 troops of the Lebanese army. A force which Time described three days ago as “weak not just by neglect, but also by design.”

[Read the whole thing.]

***

Jawa Report: Fwench Do What They Do Best: Wimp Out

Contributed by Bill Faith on August 9, 2006 at 12:53 PM in Bill Faith, France, Hezbollah, Iran, Islamism Delenda Est, Syria | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack