The Jewish World Review has picked up the latest issue of Professor Daniel Pipes' newsletter--normally available to subscribers only. Find it here .  His column deals with a burning question, namely--

Can the Israel Defense Forces in fact disrupt Iran's nuclear program?

The lead sentence hints strongly that Israel is on its own in confronting the near-term prospect of the Iranian Holocaust Bomb.

Barring a 'catastrophic development,' Middle East Newsline reports, George Bush has decided not to attack Iran. An administration source explains that Washington deems Iran's cooperation 'needed for a withdrawal [of U.S. forces] from Iraq.'

If this unnamed administration source is anywhere near the Sec Def or Condi level, it would seem that the primary emphasis  has shifted from victory in the Middle East to withdrawal.  Has the message to Iran evolved from "Make nice, not nukes" to "Pretty please, just let us go quietly?"  Wiser heads than mine are needed to decrypt that sibylline utterance.  Even so, it is safe to conclude that the White House appetite for pre-emption has subsided to somewhere below the level of wishful thinking.

The main body of the Pipes offering concentrates on summarizing and analyzing a think-piece by a pair of MIT scholars who examine Israel's capabilities in depth.  Can the Israelis actually do it?  The short answer is "Yes," provided the government can steel themselves to face the kind of outcry that followed their attack on the Osirak reactor.  Their argument is well worth reading.

At the end, Dr. Pipes speculates on feasibility, and sees a fly in the ointment, a daunting question that planners  of such an operation must face and somehow resolve.

In the author's words, without serious comment here--

The great question mark hanging over the operation, one which the authors do not speculate about, is whether any of the Turkish, Jordanian, American, or Saudi governments would acquiesce to Israeli penetration of their air spaces. (Iraq, recall, is under American control). Unless the Israelis win advance permission to cross these territories, their jets might have to fight their way to Iran. More than any other factor, this one imperils the entire project. (The IDF could reduce this problem by flying along borders, for example, the Turkey-Syria one, permitting both countries en route to claim Israeli planes were in the other fellow's air space.)

Is he kidding, or what?  Your call.

Contributed by 72nd TCS on June 13, 2007 at 07:59 PM in Coming home, Current Affairs, G W Bush, Iran, Iraq, John "72nd TCS" Werntz | Permalink

Comments