Here we go again.  The French Minister of Defense is urgently investigating a leak from the DGSE [France's service of foreign intelligence] to a daily in the East, L'Est Républicain.  The newspaper reproduces what purports to be a secret memo that was forwarded to the *highest authorities* of the nation.

For what it may be worth [as news, and as a literary effort] the sequel presents a translation of the essentials.

Note: The original is couched in the conditional, meaning "We don't know but it's a hot rumor."

Osama Bin Laden May Be Dead

"According to a usually reliable source, the Saudi services are convinced that Osama Bin Laden is dead. Details collected by the Saudis indicate that the leader of Al-Qaeda, while he was in Pakistan on the 23rd of August 2006, may have suffered a severe attack of typhoid that brought on  a partial paralysis of his lower limbs. Hiding from pursuers in a remote location, he was unable to receive medical attention. On the 4th of September 2006, the Saudi services of security learned the first details of his death.  Before announcing the news officially, they await obtaining further details, notably the exact location of his grave.

"The DGSE deemed the data collected on his death sufficiently reliable to merit notifying the highest authorities of France [Tr. note: President Chirac, the PM, and the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense]. A preliminary memo was prepared and circulated on the 19th of September. It was entitled 'The Saudi services seek to confirm the death of Osama Bin Laden.'"

Not much to say here, but a few random remarks may be in order.  Note first the gap of two weeks between the 4th, when DGSE got the news from some Saudi, and the 19th when they decided to alert their bosses.  This surely indicates that the decision to inform the authorities was based on serious study.  Why did the French get the story before the Americans? At the risk of annoying our spooks, it is well known that the French have vastly more and better human assets on the ground everywhere in the Middle East, even among our *special friends* in Saudi Arabia.

Long-term significance? In the famous Arab street, surely none. It would take a concerted PR campaign to promote Al-Zawahiri or anyone else to fill Osama's sandals.  Lacking that, the street won't like the news, and will simply ignore it.  Here at home, ho-hum.  After announcing with great fanfare that he would send troops into Pakistan to bring Osama to "justice," the president can hardly turn on a dime, admit that he has been kept out of the loop, and welcome the news of his adversary's passing. The CIA is bound to pooh-pooh it, on the familiar grounds that the story is NIH--Not Invented Here. Likewise, the media. The mantra "I question the timing." will spring up everywhere like desert flowers after a shower. Even if the putative grave were discovered, only the government of Pakistan would have the power to disinter and identify the corpse.  Forget about it.  President Musharraf's life would not be worth a stiver if he were to permit the desecration of the tomb of a latter-day Prophet.

Maybe Jay Leno can get a joke out of it.  That's All Folks!  Even so, the gravity of the French response to the leak has to count for something. On the other hand, the circumstantial details of Osama's illness seem somewhat dubious. Partial paralysis of the legs is not a commonly occurring symptom of typhoid fever.  Some medical dictionaries do list "prostration," which could include any sort of extreme weakness, so  perhaps "paralysis" simply means he was too weak to stand or walk.  It's a coin-flip.

Contributed by John Werntz on September 23, 2006 at 12:29 PM in Current Affairs, France, Islamism Delenda Est, John "72nd TCS" Werntz | Permalink

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