Several of the best strategic thinkers on the web seem to have noticed the same detail about the new Lebanese fighting. By now everyone seems to recognize that at least the Iranians and Syrians are in this up to their turbans. But Froggy at Blackfive speculates that the current campaign against Israel may involve coordination between not only Iran and Syria, but also North Korea. And Uncle Jimbo seems to agree. Now dafydd provides some supporting evidence by reporting the use of Chinese/North Korean missiles in damaging an Israeli warship. And  Allahpundit examines the North Korean withdrawal from talks about their missile tests and questions the curious timing of events.

In my opinion, it goes even further. Way back on April 8, when the disturbances on our own Southwestern border were the news lead, I suggested that Venezuela and Iran might be meddling and stirring up the Mexicans to cause trouble. What I have learned subsequently is that the Chinese, North Koreans, and Russians have also been canoodling with Chavez. all of these governments cooperate, and run interference for each other. To believe that these countries are not coordinating with each other requires a great leap of faith or intellectual incompetence. Evidence of Cuban and Russian active participation is less clear, but common sense and experience suggest that must be because they are just keeing a lower profile.

For the moment Mexico seems quiet. They have just had an election, and to the surprise and disappointment of some Latinos, the most anti-American candidate did not win - though he is promising to dispute his defeat by insurrection. During the latter stages of World War II, the Russians practiced along their lengthy front, what was called "accordion strategy" playing up and down the keyboard in sequential attacks. Attack in one sector, push as far as you could go, and then to give the troops a chance to consolidate and regroup, while attacking immediately a bit further up the front, keeping the enemy off balance and their dwindling strategic reserves hustling like a fire brigade from one breakthrough to another.

Perhaps we have a similar "accordion" strategy being conducted against us now. I expect to see another surge in terrorist attacks in Iraq to keep American forces tied down and unavailable for aiding Israel. And I expect to see other distracting attacks, such as the carnage in Mumbai. While we are distracted, Curly Jong Il will be preparing his next round of missile launches, and the Chinese will be quietly assisting and supplying everyone else, perhaps even applying some more pressure against Taiwan.  And I expect that very soon we will see another bout of heightened disturbances and assaults along the Mexican border, perhaps with some new outrage. We should be not surprised.

To me it also suggests that the most useful assistance to Israel may not be direct support in Lebanon. Israel has demonstrated repeatedly it can whup large coalitions of the local sheet heads if it really wishes and does not hold back. Perhaps we might be most helpful if we were to give the Iranians so much to think about that they lose all interest in Lebanon. "That's a real nice holy city you got there Mister Mo. It would sure be a shame if something were to happen and turn it into a Qum splot".

Strategic distraction is a fun game that everyone can play. During the Reagan years, John Lehman considreably unnerved the russians by suggesting that if a war were to break out in Europe. we would not confine our response to that main theater, but might well (read - definitely would) open a new front in some place not of the agressor's choosing - like the Soviet Far East. Marshal Ogarkov had a conniption.  And with Strategic Distraction the biggest players are guaranteed the most success if they're just willing to use their size advantage.

-Rurik

Contributed by George Mellinger on July 15, 2006 at 08:48 PM in George Mellinger, Islamism Delenda Est, NoKo, Remember the Alamo | Permalink

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